First, for the general environment of the 5 prejudgements
2023 seems to be a strong reminder of an indisputable fact: reality is not subjective to human will. So even if the beginning of the year when all the parties are expected to be good, but the results have given everyone a heavy slap. This is as long as the general look at the 2023 annual food and beverage new openings and closures can be seen at a glance. So how do you make the most reasonable forecast? A: Remove as much subjectivity as possible and use objective facts (data) as the core basis. From this, we may be able to launch 5 probable possibilities:
1, CPI and M2: the waves remain the same
By 2023 annual CPI trend can be found: the overall high before and after the low and constantly low trend, 10, November with the ring is a continuous negative growth and the rate of decline is expanding. This reflects the consumption is not vibrant, further imbalance between supply and demand, the demand side more and more depressed and other prominent issues.
2, the possibility of deflation continues to increase
Academic deflation standards are somewhat controversial, but the general view: when the consumer price index (CPI) fell for three months, that is, deflation has occurred. So if the CPI remains negative in December 2023, our economy has theoretically fallen into deflation.
Deflation is that the money supply (consumption) is less than the supply of goods, due to the consumption of atrophy, so the supply of goods exceeds demand and intensified, resulting in business can only be maintained through continuous price reductions; can be more and more serious imbalance between the supply and demand, so manufacturers have to reduce production, shutdowns, and shutdowns, cuts in production means a large number of layoffs, and then the consumption of further narrowing of the thunderous " The Great Depression in the United States and Japan disappeared 30 years" is so come.
According to 2024 Chinashop, the probability of falling into deflation is really getting bigger and bigger. If the real into deflation, that the public consumption will be more and more frozen, and even negative interest rates are difficult to effectively drive consumption (check the history of Japan's deflation).
3, consumer stimulus will be increasingly large
So the core of the future of everything is only in two words - consumption, consumption if continue to be so depressed, then the subsequent impact is immeasurable. Therefore, the probability of 2024 will introduce a series of more powerful consumer stimulus policies, at the same time due to the release of water efforts dare not stop, all kinds of low-interest consumer loans, credit card activities will also be endless. The industry can be predicted: this year, the strength of credit card spending rebates or will be higher and higher, how to better leverage the force will be a major focus.
4, the strength of the policy can be expected and may appear "new pillar".
But now the key to consumption is actually expected: by the money supply situation can be seen - not no money, but do not dare to spend, so if the pessimistic expectations do not change, that put more water will only be stored up, the market money supply is still difficult to get better. So the policy strength and orientation is really expected, or will force the emergence of the first 20 years of property like a new pillar industry.
5, the internal cycle and the construction of a unified domestic market will be further deepened
As the international situation is becoming more and more turbulent and more turbulent, so it is expected that the probability of 2024 to continue last year's overall situation, and even more intense, so the internal cycle and the construction of a unified domestic market is bound to be further accelerated, deepened, such as luxury goods and other cross-border tourism derived consumption will gradually shrink inward, which will be a major benefit to the domestic high-end projects.
According to 2024 Chinashop, due to the international situation, the overlay of unstable factors, international shipping may be seriously affected, so the national goods may usher in a major opportunity; at the same time, just demand categories (such as food and oil, etc.) hoarding enthusiasm and the possibility of premiums will be further increased.
Source:联商网